Monday, November 17, 2008

Is (RON97) RM2 per liter of petrol justifiable?

As of Nov 18 2008:
Petroleum (Crude Oil)

Crude Oil Price = USD 56 per barrel
USD1= RM3.60

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1 barrel [US, petroleum] = 158.98liter

Conversion at current Market Rate:
Crude Oil Price = RM 1.27 per litre

Malaysia = RON97 RM2 per liter.

Leveraging Crude Oil Price over Sales Price

1.27/2 = 0.635

That's 36.5% of cost+profit

Oil Companies Nett Profit = Sales Price - (Crude Oil Price + Processing Cost + Logistic Cost+ Retail Profit)

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With PETRONAS controlling the absolute Supply Chain of the Oil Business ranging from Oil Trading (Purchase Crude Oil from MiddleEast/Somewhere else they did not mention), Processing/Refining Plant, Oil Logistic to Retailing (Petronas Dagangan); - they would be able to control internal cost of the retailer oil.

Let's set a rule of thumb; (I may be wrong, it could be even lower)
10% of Crude oil price for processing and refinery
5% of crude oil price for logistic
8cent retailer profit per liter (Sourced from a friend who operates oil retail)

===>at Max, the base cost would be 27 cent
===>Minimum Profit (est) = 8 cent per liter

I'm only giving the worse case scenario.

In 2006 (Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Malaysia/pdf.pdf), Malaysia consume 515000 barrel/day.
That's 81,874,700 liters/day.
That's 29 billion liters/year.

Even with 1 cent per liter profit, PETRONAS is set to make RM298million per year out of local oil consumption.

With the new Rule of Thumb Profit (8cent), PETRONAS is guranteed a MINIMUM of RM2.39billion per year.
That's around RM2300 per capita.

I'm only giving you the estimated minimum pre-tax profit out of Oil Trading for local consumption.
We haven't include those local petroleum products that PETRONAS profited from exports.
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I believe PETRONAS is making some serious OBSCENE PROFIT with the new world Crude Oil Price.
So much to say that they used to be SUBSIDIZED by the government. Now it's time for them to subsidize us back.

Government need to reduce the price further.

Just think about it. Crude Oil Price plunges from USD160 perbarrel to USD 56 perbarrel in just a couple of months. That's 65% of price drop.

In Malaysia, RON97 plunges from RM2.70 to RM2.00. THAT'S ONLY 26% OF PRICE DROP.


HAPPY PUMPING!!!
Just think about the RM2300 per year you could have gotten back if PETRONAS and government decided not to rake in income from domestic oil consumption.

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